With Vincentians set to vote today in what many observers believe could be the most competitive General Election in two decades, veteran journalist Kenton Chance and regional political scientist Peter Wickham say the political temperature across St Vincent and the Grenadines is unlike anything seen in recent cycles – marked by intense voter interest, economic pressures and lingering questions about leadership direction.
Chance, who will be covering his fifth General Election, said the atmosphere on the ground suggests an electorate deeply invested in the outcome.
“The kind of energy that I’m feeling now is unlike anything I’ve seen before,” he noted, pointing to crowded rallies, charged public debates, and unusually sharp scrutiny of candidates’ messages. “People are really taking this election seriously.”
While maintaining neutrality, Chance hinted that the tone coming from the ruling Unity Labour Party (ULP) may itself indicate a tightening race. He referenced a clip from Prime Minister Dr Ralph Gonsalves’ final rally speech – a video he shared online – in which Gonsalves openly appealed to former ULP supporters to “come home.”
“I would encourage your readers to take a look at that clip and see what conclusions they come to,” Chance added, suggesting that such appeals could be significant as Vincentians interpret the political mood heading into polling day.
Chance said the cost of living stands out as the defining issue of the 2025 election campaign.
“Cost of living, without a doubt,” he stressed. “People are feeling the strain and finding it a lot harder to make ends meet.” He noted that while the government has attempted to explain its policies, the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) has “really honed in” on the frustrations facing households.
The aftermath of vaccine mandates, social policy continuity, and the future of assistance programmes have also surfaced as key concerns among voters.
Chance identified North Leeward – won by a single vote in 2020 – and North Windward as pivotal battleground seats that could swing the overall outcome.
“Most people expect the opposition to win North Leeward,” he said, though he cautioned that both areas remain tight.
“The thinking is that once North Windward goes, that could signal the end of the ULP administration.”
Growing interest
He also pointed to growing interest in South Windward and South Central Windward, where two senior government figures – seen by many as potential heirs to Gonsalves – are defending their seats. Their vulnerability,
he warned, could deepen the ULP’s challenges.
The narrative of alleged foreign involvement – fuelled in part by the ULP itself – is having mixed effects, Chance said.
Ordinary Vincentians have become unusually suspicious of visiting journalists and non-locals at campaign events, he observed.
“In the context of this narrative… I think it can work against the ruling party,” he said. “Ordinarily you wouldn’t pay attention to another Caribbean accent, but now people are wondering why another Caribbean brother or sister is here.”
He noted, however, that the Barbadian strategists reported to be advising the ULP have not been visible on platforms, suggesting their role is “more number-crunching” than public campaigning.
Political scientist Peter Wickham, who declined to comment extensively on St Vincent and the Grenadines’ internal politics, nevertheless raised a key concern surrounding NDP leader Dr Godwin Friday.
Wickham said he is troubled by Friday’s reluctance to clearly articulate his foreign policy stance, especially regarding US involvement in Caribbean affairs.
“There is a concern in many quarters that he is pro-Trump, and I do feel that if this is his view, it would be useful for him to state this,” Wickham said. “Voters… would need to have a clear idea of how he stands on these issues.”
He added that while Vincentians know where Gonsalves stands on regional matters, Friday has not yet fully clarified his own posture.
At the same time, Wickham acknowledged that the numbers from 2020 already indicated a tight political environment.
“If you look at the data from the previous election, it is the closest election in St Vincent,” he said. “The gaps in support from the 2020 election are the smallest Gonsalves has faced in his entire time in office. That is an empirical fact.” (CLM)
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