The Caribbean region looks set to transition into an intense heat season with heatwaves occurring as early as April.
This is coming from the Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) stating that the prediction is as a result of an expected return to ENSO neutral conditions in the Pacific while unusually warm Tropical North Atlantic temperatures persist.
ENSO or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is a climate pattern that involves changes in ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific.
The latest publication of the Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, said for the period March to May this year, CariCOF said March is characterised by high evaporation rates and an annual peak in the frequency of short dry spells, as well as further buildup of any ongoing drought, with increasing wildfire potential.
“By contrast, from April to May, rainfall intensity and shower frequency are likely to sharply rise, resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts in the Caribbean,” CariCOF said.
It also pointed to episodes of Saharan dust intrusion – and lower air quality – being likely to become more frequent.
CariCOF said that the potential for flooding, flash floods and cascading impacts arising from intense rainfall events increases from limited or moderate in March, to high or extremely high in April and May.
It said water recharge rates in surface reservoirs and rivers will likely
accelerate after March, and “accelerated rise in wet day frequency into May to increasingly disrupt outdoor tourism activities, make conditions conducive to moisture-related pests, but dampen wildfire potential”.
CariCOF said that as of February 1, this year, moderate or worse, short-term drought has developed in Antigua, the northern and central Bahamas, southwest French Guiana, central portions of the coast of Guyana, and St. Croix.
It said that long-term drought is evolving in southwest Belize, northernmost Dominican Republic, southwest French Guiana, southwest Jamaica, St Croix, and northwest Trinidad.
It said that the climate outlook for the period June to August 2025, which marks the summer portion of the Caribbean wet season and heat season, night-time temperatures will likely be higher than usual in most areas.
“In addition, daytime maximum temperatures will likely be as high as usual or higher, with the exception of the area from Haiti eastwards to the Leeward Islands. Episodes of hazardous heat could appear in April and May, with increased risk in areas that are wind sheltered and/or in drought.” ( CMC)
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